SYNOPSIS

A new tropical cyclone developed last night inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and is now a named Tropical Depression - Julian (local name). TD Julian was located 435 km east southeast of Batanes with winds of 45 kph / 55 kph gusts (PAGASA). It is expected to move on a westward track across Luzon strait in the next couple of days. Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal Number 1 was raised in Batanes and Babuyan group of islands, Northern Cagayan, Apayao and Ilocos Norte. These areas may be affected by rainshowers (Batanes and Babuyan group of islands may experience moderate to heavy rains) and slightly stronger than normal but not damaging winds. For now, it is not expected to intensify into a typhoon.

Meanwhile, expect cloudy skies with scattered light to moderate (to at times heavy) rains in most parts of the country. Potential monsoonal (Habagat) surge may be expected over the weekend in Central Philippines.

FPH ASSETS AT RISK

BWF (Burgos) management and employees are recommended to monitor the development of this disturbance.

For more info, see localized forecast for areas with FPH assets below.

CURRENT AND FORECAST INFORMATION

Latest satellite image (Himawari/Japan) shows TD Julian with a circulation center located east southeast of Batanes.

PAGASA forecast track for TD Julian shows it will pass over Batanes-Babuyan area tomorrow morning and into the South China Sea this weekend. JMA (Japan) and JTWC (US) tracks are similar with that of PAGASA track, however, JTWC just released a tropical cyclone alert since available data does not justify issuance of a warning.

RAIN FORECAST MAPS

Wednesday (5 Oct): Southwest monsoon winds are bringing rain to most of Visayas, as well as southern Luzon and northern Mindanao.

Thursday (6 Oct): Isolated rainshowers in Luzon including NCR, and thunderstorms due to the InterTropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in most of Mindanao.

LOCALIZED FORECAST IN AREAS WITH FPH ASSETS

* Usually indicates current rainfall affecting an area and is expected to persist in the next 2-3 hours. To understand PAGASA’s Heavy Rainfall Warning, check our rainy season advisory #2 here.

** To know more about PAGASA’s TCWS (previously known as Public Storm Warning Signal) and how it works, click this link.

*** Updated every 6 hours. Information indicated here are based on weather forecast models and is not 100% perfect.For quick look of FPH assets, click here.

**** Information indicated here are based on weather forecast models and is not 100% perfect. The links will not always be updated specially if and when the TC will NOT directly hit the site/BU.

^ Based on latest forecast model, winds may be underestimated.

USEFUL LINKS

Read our previous Rainy Season Advisories:
Rainy Season Advisory #1: Here comes the rain again  
Rainy Season Advisory #2: Rhythm of the falling rain  
Rainy Season Advisory #3: Through the rain 

Read our first in a series on Preparedness:
Preparedness Advisory #1: Achieving a level of preparedness for disasters

Read our first in a series on La Nina:
La Niña Advisory #1: Fading El Niño, Brewing La Niña

ABOUT THIS ADVISORY

This Weather Advisory/Update is being provided by the Oscar M. Lopez Center for Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management Foundation, Inc.  (OML Center) in collaboration with Dr. Gerry Bagtasa, an Atmospheric Physicist from UP Diliman and team member of DOST Project NOAH. SMS updates are also provided during holidays and weekends.
The Oscar M. Lopez Center is a non-profit organization principled on climate science that mobilizes private sector support for research on climate change adaptation and disaster risk management.

To know more about the OML Center, visit our website at http://www.omlopezcenter.org/ or visit our office at the 36th floor, OCC, Ortigas.

Should you have suggestions and comments about the weather updates, please send an e-mail to Jane at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. or you can accomplish our feedback form HERE.

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Information provided here is based on data from PAGASA and other sources such as JMA and JTWC, among others. JMA is the official weather agency of the northwest Pacific region. PAGASA is the official agency in PAR and main data source for this report.

This weather update is for the internal use of FPH and its subsidiaries only.